New Paper: Using mechanistic insights to predict the climate-induced expansion of a key aquatic predator

Predicted change in occupancy within and among three marble salamander meta populations. Projections were developed for a series of climate change scenarios into the years 2050 and 2100.

How will species respond to climate change? Will their ranges expand as mechanisms limiting their geographic range are weakened? In this new paper led by Mark Urban, we develop a mechanistic model that explains current distribution of marbled salamanders at their northern range limit and then project their range expansion given multiple climate change scenarios. The upshot is that marbled salamanders are likely to occupy a larger fraction of ponds and will expand their range north over the next century. A terrific integrative effort by the Urban lab!!

Urban, M.C., Nadeau C., and S.T. Giery. 2023. Using mechanistic insights to predict the climate-induced expansion of a key aquatic predator. Ecological Monographs. e1575. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1575. [PDF]